Understanding Executive Assassinations and the Urgency of Professional Independent Security Risk Assessments in South Africa
We recently completed an assassination-related security risk assessment in Port Elizabeth, which prompted me to write this article to raise awareness. South Africa’s stunning landscapes mask a harsh reality: targeted violence against influential individuals happens daily. Such behavior makes professional risk assessments for executives more important than ever. With record-high murder rates and a growing market for professional hitmen, the threat is serious and immediate.
Limited police intervention increases the need for independent, expert-led security risk assessments, especially for executives and other high-profile individuals. In this context, “High-profile individuals” includes whistleblowers, witnesses, decision-makers, and anyone whose choices disrupt corrupt interests or expose criminal activity. This includes those who may be called to testify or who influence high-value contracts. In any environment involving large contracts, organized crime, or executive decision-making, the risk multiplies.
Key decisions
Such actions as awarding, cancelling, or limiting contracts can trigger targeted attacks. Even when a board or panel is involved, the individual who signs off or communicates the final decision often bears the full risk. In South Africa, assassinations have become a lucrative business. The cost of removing an executive can range from as little as R10,000 to as much as R800,000. When international professionals are involved over longer periods, the cost may rise to between R1.5 million and R2 million.
Assassinations are on the rise and becoming routine. More than two are reported weekly in the media. Victims include business competitors, whistleblowers, taxi operators, politicians, public figures, and anyone seen as a threat to the status quo. The method of attack has also evolved. While low-cost hits are usually chaotic and disorganized, high-cost hits are methodical and professional.
These are not random acts of violence.
They are calculated operations treated as transactions. An informer told me that although over 2,000 violent killings were recorded, only 131 were officially classified as assassinations in the most recent detailed data from late 2023. At that time, the number of killings had increased by roughly 108 percent compared to the same period the previous year.
Statistics do not lie, but they often lag behind reality. Even those compiling the data agree that these targeted killings are mostly linked to the taxi industry, organized crime, political motives, and personal revenge. Executives and whistleblowers often find themselves caught in the middle of these intersections.
Only visible, clearly defined assassinations are recorded officially.
Highly sophisticated attacks staged to look like accidents are rarely documented as such. Many assassinations are carefully planned to appear accidental and go unnoticed in official statistics.
When I refer to assassinations, I mean professional, deliberate operations targeting high-profile individuals. This is not about random shootings or petty criminals. Victims may include politicians, whistleblowers, witnesses, police officers, and others, often without even realizing they are a target.
A professional once told me, “If you hear the shot, it’s not an assassination, it’s a shooter.”
Assassinations are silent, precise, and at a distance. If you hear the sound, you likely have a chance to react. But many of today’s victims never saw it coming. They didn’t take the risk seriously. And that mistake cost them their lives.
Sometimes assessments are delayed or denied due to missing paperwork.
Waiting for more evidence is not always an option. Procurement processes can be slow, and some individuals simply are not afraid until it is too late. Companies occasionally refuse to pay for assessments or withdraw from the process altogether.
I will share a true story. We protected an individual for two years. He followed the risk assessment closely and adhered to all recommendations. One afternoon, he ran late and ignored all the protocols. That deviation cost him his life. It only takes one lapse to create the opportunity for assassination.
It is not uncommon for risk proposals to be rejected on technical grounds.
Yet the moment a person is killed or seriously threatened, approval comes instantly. This shows a lack of understanding of risk and a failure to understand the seriousness of professional assessments. Risk exists everywhere: at home, while traveling, and at work. About 80 percent of assassinations are linked to internal sources, including colleagues, employees, or contractors. Canceling a major contract suddenly or making an unexpected decision can also trigger attempts. Whistleblowers and anti-corruption officials are especially at risk. Of those who come forward, nearly half are assassinated.
The lack of urgency around executive targeting is what allows organized crime to thrive.
Many who had risk assessments ignored the rules or believed it would not happen to them. Sadly, most of those people are no longer alive.
In South Africa, the approach is often different. assassins do not act immediately because eliminating the right person involves significant cost. First, they apply constant psychological pressure. They might send photos of a target’s children at school or a spouse at work. Sometimes a dead animal is left at the gate. These acts are meant to destabilize and intimidate, affecting the entire family.
These tactics create fear, isolate the victim, and wear them down emotionally. By the time the threat becomes public, it is often too late.
Fighting violent crime begins with understanding risk. If more people took this seriously, targeted killings could be halved within weeks.
Some still believe that “cowboys don’t cry.” That mindset causes executives to suffer in silence, avoiding help and dismissing risk assessments because they do not fully understand them. This ignorance allows skilled hitmen to operate freely. They succeed because people provide them the opportunity through negligence or indifference. It is not normal for an executive or director’s life to be threatened. We must never accept such scenarios as part of business.
The threat will not disappear on its own.
Risk must be understood physically, psychologically, and behaviorally. Body language, fear responses, and emotional strain all offer insight. These should be measured and monitored. Recognizing risk is the first step to preventing it.
# Assassination security risk assessment
Disclaimer images used are generated by ChatGPT and Pixabay.
Article written by Andre Mundell.